National slipping in polls


For the first time in months, National is slipping in the polls. Although the opposition will probably claim some success in causing the drop, it is largely reflective of some bad choices made by the Government over the last few months starting to stack up, instead of an effective Parliamentary opposition. It is worthwhile looking at a few of the problems that this third term National-led Government is facing:

  • Ponytail-gate – the saga of John Key pulling the ponytail of a female waitress at a cafe, claiming its a routine he often does, only to find out most of New Zealand think it was simply inappropriate behaviour unbecoming of the Prime Minister
  • A budget with some really silly items in it, most notably the punitive and really unfair fee that travellers must pay to enter/exit New Zealand, which starts on 01 January 2016 and will be $22 for inbound passengers and $6 for outbound ones
  • The failure of said budget to deliver a surplus, the one thing this Government appears to want at all costs – eventually
  • Alleged bribery by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Murray McCully who the Opposition say paid a wealthy Saudi Arabian businessman several million dollars of tax payer money to keep him onside over matters pertaining to trade
  • Growing unease over the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement negotiations and the continuing secrecy around a so called Free Trade deal that sounds anything but beneficial to New Zealand
  • Growing unease over the war against Islamic State and New Zealand’s involvement in it – as well as America’s prosecution of the war

Although this poll shows National slipping, others such as the Stuff/Ipsos poll show it rising – ignoring the public sentiment over the T.P.P. and an unpopular war that even National’s ally A.C.T. claims to be concerned about. Realistically though I think if an election were held today Parliament might look something like this:

National 56 seats; Labour 38 seats; New Zealand First 11 seats; Greens 11 seats; United Future 1; A.C.T. 1; Maori Party 2

The above is a reflection of growing exasperation with National, a nod to Andrew for not having made too many serious mistakes since becoming leader of Labour, but also a frustration with the minor parties not being able to do better. All have work to do if they want to maintain their current seats, but the Greens with the election of a new co-leader are probably just that much closer to pole position.

 

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