29 March 2019 is a day that many in Britain are probably looking at with increasing alarm/excitement/curiosity. It is a day that will potentially define the career of British Prime Minister Theresa May. It is a day that will be the culmination of nearly 3 years of roller coaster Brexit politics.
It will be – for better or for worse – the day Brexit happens.
It might also be a day that New Zealand businesses, politicians and diplomats are looking at with increasing interest/curiosity/excitement as well, albeit for different reasons. On that day or in the days following, New Zealand like the rest of the world will either see a peaceful transition to Brexit with politics, economics and society continuing about its business, or a messy one akin I am honestly not sure what New Zealand can do since I do not think British diplomats are any more informed than their political bosses as to the potential fall out should a no deal Brexit occur. But for the sake of this country we need to know what the likely scenarios are, draw up a list of potential sectors that might be subject to adverse effects and consider what support they might need.
Right now to me the metaphor about a canary down the mine shaft is hard to ignore. In this case Britain is like a canary that is going down a mine shaft which will shortly diverge in multiple directions and choosing the wrong one might result in Britain being in a shaft with carbon monoxide or methane.
But before Britain reaches the mine shaft junction, there are a few things that can potentially save them from a chaotic problem filled mess:
- Perhaps foremost is the ruling of the European Union court that Britain can exit the Brexit process unilaterally if so desires. That means provided enough politicians come together to make it possible, Brexit would be abolished and Britain remains in the European Union. The one very big catch here is that the hard line Brexiteers would fight tooth and nail to prevent something like this happening. Also Members of Parliament from electorates that voted to leave, but whom personally realize the need to stay would be in danger of being outed at the next election
- Whilst running out of time to make one happen, there seems to be considerable movement in support of a second referendum.
- Let us suppose just for a moment that British Prime Minister Theresa May does somehow manage to stumble, fumble and bumble her way to a deal that survives Parliament, would the voting public accept it or reject it
There are also Brexit deadlines that have to be met if none of the above can happen:
- UNKNOWN is the day for the rescheduled U.K. Parliamentary vote – it was meant to happen on 11 December 2018
- 21 JANUARY is the final day for Mrs May to send a deal to the U.K. Parliament
- 29 MARCH is the day that Britain formally exits the European Union
Mrs May has challenges. Can she muster 320 or more M.P.’s in the House of Parliament to get whatever deal is sent to Parliament for the vote, over the line? If she cannot and given that the U.K Parliament will probably rise soon for the Christmas break, how long will she have after it resumes and before the 29 January deadline to present something to Parliament does she have?
But back to New Zealand and our readiness for Brexit in whatever form it comes. Yes we should have a look at the potential flow on effects for New Zealand, especially if it cannot reach a deal with the European Union. Yes we should definitely expect turbulence in the days afterwards either way in the markets – the N.Z. Dollar might abruptly drop or rise.