Observations of the U.S. Presidential race 2020: Republican view

The purpose of this article is to briefly examine the Republican nominee race for the 2020 U.S. Presidential election.

At this moment only two obscure Republican candidates are confirmed to face off in a bid to become the Republican nominee. This is a challenge made all the more difficult by virtue of the fact that Mr Trump, despite the commencing of the impeachment trial, has a rock solid evangelical Christian core of support. This is especially so around thorny issues such as abortion, gun rights, freedom of speech.

One is Joe Walsh, a talk radio host from Illinois. Initially Mr Walsh was a Trump supporter, but gradually became more and more critical. Prior to going onto the radio waves he was a two year Senator, who was replaced by U.S. Army veteran Tammy Duckworth, who lost the use of both legs in combat.

However he holds many of Mr Trump’s policy positions. And indeed some are even more right leaning than those of the incumbent President. Mr Walsh’s time holding electorate office might also count against him as  the voting American will not necessarily see that one of the curiosities of being a New Zealander

The other is a businessman named Bill Weld, a former Governor of Maryland. Mr Weld’s campaign thus far has amassed about U.S. $871,000. He appears to be pro choice on abortion, a fiscal conservative who will reduce spending on the military.

As Republican candidates go, this sounds pretty good to me, but there are a couple of fundamental issues that need to be cleared first. Whilst Mr Weld sounds promising, it has to be said that the vast majority of Americans probably do not remember him that well. And his policy platform is in its infancy.

I cannot see at this time Mr Trump being removed from office. Whilst conviction in his trial requires a simple 51-49 majority, and would only need 4 Republicans to cross the floor, the constitutional rules require a super majority of 66 sitting Senators to remove him from office. In this case that would require 22 Republican senators to cross the floor.

Unless the Democrats get their act together in the next few months, or the impeachment trial A) convicts Mr Trump and B) votes to remove him from office, Donald John Trump will be President on 21 January 2021.

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