Getting ready for the Alpine Fault


It is New Zealand’s biggest seismic hazard, short of a Hikurangi Trench subduction zone rupture. The Alpine Fault earthquake that is expected to occur in the next 50-100 years has been well publicized. But how much are communities close to the fault doing to prepare for a magnitude 8.0+ earthquake?

The Alpine Fault, New Zealand’s answer to the well known San Andreas Fault in California, is the tectonic plate boundary between the Pacific Plate and the Australian Plate where they intersect in the South Island. Every 300 years or so this fault line ruptures in a magnitude 8 earthquake. A sequence of 24 events over the last 8,000 years points to earthquakes in 1100AD, 1450AD, 1620AD and finally around 1717AD,

No part of the South Island will be spared prolonged shaking. Many people, especially i in the lower North Island, will also notice the earthquake. Shaking intensities along the rupturing segment of fault are likely to be up to MMX, which is strong enough to heavily  damage all structures, with many failing and large objects such as televisions and microwaves being moved about. Liquefaction, lateral spreading, landslides and seiching of lake bodies will occur as well.

Alpine Fault Magnitude 8 is a collaborative and ongoing project to improve the readiness of councils across the South Island in terms of their ability to respond to such an event. It has buy in from emergency services, Civil Defence, social groups, the N.Z.D.F., agencies working with lifeline infrastructure and others. The aim is to improve modelling of the potential hazard, engage emergency management and planning experts and use the knowledge gleaned to fill gaps about how to respond.

I anticipate that much of the work that has been done will have been brought into sharp focus by the Kaikoura earthquake in 2016. This was the largest onshore earthquake to hit New Zealand since Murchison in 1929. It caused widespread damage across the northern South Island and lower North Island. The quake exposed weaknesses in transport arrangements with both the railway line and State Highway 1 closed – traffic had to be rerouted through the Lewis Pass in order to reach Picton.

Despite the Kaikoura earthquake and lingering shadow of the Christchurch earthquake, not all councils appear keen to progress their disaster planning. Westland District Council found itself in hot water in 2016 for rejecting Plan Change 7, which sought to address the planning issues that Franz Josef township finds itself confronting. The township straddles the Alpine Fault, which is clearly visible from the air as a crude gash in the landscape. Critics pointed out that the council has a duty of care to all in the District and that by failing to address the risks posed, it leaves itself open to court action by anyone in the District at the time of such an earthquake.

Yet the risk remains. Other councils are pressing ahead with their own plans individually, to be fed into the overall A.F.8. planning framework. It is a proactive council that stands the best chance of success, for no one knows when 300 years of seismic stress on the Alpine Fault will give up the ghost. The only certainty is that with the same confidence that darkness will come into a room when the light goes out, one can conclude it is inevitable.

A tribute to “the beautiful game”


When it was first announced that Russia was going to host the F.I.F.A. World Cup in 2018 I was less than impressed. At the time Russian nationalism, its participation in football hooliganism and an intolerance of homosexuals and foreigners was on display. Then F.I.F.A.’s boss Sepp Blatter was made to step down because of damning allegations against him which further tarnished the games international image.

But in the last few months one could see growing excitement as a new World Cup approached. People stopped talking about the political ruckus going on around the football pitch. People started talking about who would win, which stars would be there and how their favourite teams would go. It began to become interesting and not another political football.

Yesterday that excitement around the world reached fever point. After amazing pool play that saw all manner of surprises, and some shock finals, Russia hosted France and Croatia as they played for the crowning glory of the 2018 F.I.F.A. World Cup.

Congratulations France. Commisserations Croatia.

Whether one likes football or not – I didn’t watch a single match from end to end, though I saw the highlights for all of the finals – one has to admire the extent to which 22 players booting a round leather ball for 90 minutes can captivate millions of people across the globe, putting aside poverty and war; refugee camps and Brexit politics. Just for 90 minutes something other than the daily struggles of live become more important, more exciting. Something worth riding the thrills and spills of. In that context F.I.F.A. 2018 has provided plenty.

Whether you are from a nation that did not get there to or being French or Croatian, whether you liked football or not, you have probably had a conversation that involved the word football in a F.I.F.A. 2018 context. Whether you simply watched the highlights myself, or went to the bar to watch it, or were one of the lucky thousands to have secured tickets to a match football has probably crossed your mind in the last six weeks.

Football is a beautifully simple game if one can see past the theatrics of players like Neymar. It is a game that unites the world in a way no other sport can – rugby, cricket and others make an honest go of it, but none of them have the truly international breadth of football. We are talking about a sport that is played with gusto on every continent except Antarctica, though I am sure it has been talked about down there. We are talking about a sport that has – if I read correctly – 4 billion people watching the World Cup Final around the world.

Football gives hope in the most unusual ways – from Palestinian militants stopping briefly to celebrate a David Beckham goal, to kids in refugee camps around the world kicking footballs across muddy ground; from girls trying to Bend it like Beckham to relative minnow nations like New Zealand (ranked 89th in the world) when we toppled the then no. 15, Serbia in 2010 just a few weeks before the F.I.F.A. World Cup that year.

Now as we start to look forward to it being in Qatar in 2022, an event currently being marred by human rights abuses building the stadiums, I am trying to keep an open mind following the success of a tournament that was far better than I thought it would be. Hopefully Qatar will rise to the occasion and put on something to match or better F.I.F.A. 2022.

Thanks very much for proving me and many many others wrong Russia.

E.Q.C. report nothing new


Another E.Q.C. report – the same old story: disgruntled claimants, botched repairs and no one being made to take responsibility.

After 7 years of dealing with the consequences of the 04 September 2010 and 22 February 2011 earthquakes the latest E.Q.C. report was not surprising in the least, except perhaps with regards to how scathing it was.

Earthquake Recovery Minister Megan Woods has been in the job for 8 months now. Annette King who was appointed Chairwoman of E.Q.C.’s Board has been instructed by Ms Woods to accept the findings and begin implementing the recommendations immediately.

All well and good so far. But having spent most of a decade waiting for satisfactory resolution to their claims and fair, full and final payouts to match, many will be short on patience. Some of the claimants are in their 80’s and should not need to be still dealing with problems that might have started when they were still in their 70’s. These are the people who should be happily living out their final days enjoying their time with their relatives and friends, doing things they like and not having to worry about what the Earthquake Commission is or is not doing about their property.

The Earthquake Commission for its part needs to play along with Mrs King’s implementation of the findings. No time to delay, no games to play – anyone who begs to differ should be shown the door forthwith..

The report, whilst welcome has some serious issues to overcome, namely:

  • What will be the period in which claims can be settled – open ended settling periods are not acceptable and have been the cause of considerable and well documented angst among claimants
  • Will Cabinet approve the reimbursing of insurance companies if they agree to immediately settle on all over-the-cap claims? Ms Woods says that she will, but given the financial pressure it is likely to add, it remains to be seen if Cabinet will come on board
  • The standard of repairs needs addressing – the repairs should not have been signed off in the manner that they were until someone with neutral oversight could check the standard
  • Hire the necessary staff to do the job and stop pretending everything is under control when it is clearly obvious that it is not
  • Tell E.Q.C. that non-compliance is not an option

It is with guarded optimism that I wait to see what will happen. Having been in Christchurch for all of the magnitude 6.0+ events – 04 September 2011 (7.1); 22 February 2011 (6.3); 13 June 2011 (6.4) and 23 December 2011 (6.0) – as well as nearly all of the aftershocks between magnitude 5.0-5.9 and felt the stress, I can totally understand the frustration and anger. It is long since time to get this mess fixed.

The end of a great XX Commonwealth Games


By the time you read this, the quadrennial Commonwealth Games of the British Commonwealth will have ended. The Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia will be celebrating a job well done hosting the Games. The representatives of 53 nations that make up over 1/4 of the worlds total population will be packing up and on their way back home or on to their next sporting fixture. With a brilliant New Zealand campaign with only a few disappointments coming to an end I thought I would write an article with a lighter tone than the heavy ones of the last while.

To someone not from the British Commonwealth, you might ask, “so what”?

The British Commonwealth may at times seem like a dysfunctional family and in some respects there is an element of truth to that. Some of its member nations have barely functioning Governments, whilst others are wealthy, respected nations of the international community. You might say, “but they are all ex-colonies and want nothing to do with Britain”. Not true. The nations do not need to be monarchies to be in the Commonwealth – the nations just need to be former British colonies. Otherwise the games would be inescapably much different – you would have no India, Pakistan, South Africa, Kenya, Singapore.

But back to the Commonwealth Games 2018.

The Games had it all. From tiny nations Vanuatu, Solomon Islands and Cook Islands picking up their first ever Commonwealth Games medals, to the usual power houses, the range of countries on the dais was impressive. From the sad scene of watching Australian leading the mens marathon only to collapse in agonizing circumstances 2km from the finish and a certain gold to watching the unmitigated glee of the little island nations finally achieving long held dreams, the emotions were there.

For me as a New Zealander this was a chance to watch what for me is a mid term reference point in the four year Olympic cycle. It was a chance to see what progress has been made in the Olympic sports since Rio de Janeiro, but also for a few sports almost exclusive to the British Commonwealth, such as netball to have a good old fashion derby.

From Sophie Pascoe leading the team into the stadium on 05 April 2018 for the Opening Ceremony right through to Stacey Michelsen doing the honours for the Closing Ceremony New Zealand has had a great Games.

There were the “oh-so-close” loss in the womens shotput where Olympic double gold and one time silver medallist Valerie Adams came second. There was also the pleasing progress of Olympic Pole Vault bronze and now Commonwealth Games silver medallist Eliza McCartney, who at 21 has a promising career ahead.

And there were surprises. Some of them lovely and some not so lovely. Of the lovely surprises I think the award has to go to the New Zealand womens hockey team for nabbing New Zealand’s first ever hockey gold – always a nice thing to turn on the television expecting the scores to be tied or the opposition leading and find N.Z. leading 4-1 with just minutes to go.

As for the not so lovely? Actually it was nothing to do with the sport but everything to do with the miserable timing of advertisements, the showing of highlights when live matches with New Zealanders in them were on  Whilst pleased that some free to air screening was allowed, it seemed like it was poorly planned and even more poorly executed. If Television New Zealand are going to host live coverage of events like the Commonwealth Games in future, they need to be better organized and better clued to what is going on, because this really was not good enough.

And then there was just the downright sad. The decline of the Silver Ferns netball team has been hard to watch, but the last ten days have been absolutely brutal. A cascade of bungled matches – Malawi, England, Australia, Jamaica. Although one hopes that the resurgent England, who bet Australia in the gold medal match, points to a brighter future in the international sport, there is much to be despondent about in New Zealand netball at the moment. No doubt there will be decisions over the future of the coach and Silver Ferns captain in the coming days. So, I leave you with a few highlights of the New Zealand campaign:

One year after the fires, what has New Zealand learnt?


The first I became aware of the fires on the Port Hills that started one year ago was a fellow staff member coming into the staff room and saying there is a big plume of smoke coming from the Port Hills and that it must be a scrub fire. Thinking it would probably be all over in a matter of hours I went out for a quick look and decided to have a closer look at coverage of it in the media later on. A year later, what have we learnt about fighting such fires?

For awhile an amalgamation of the New Zealand Fire Service and other emergency services has been on the cards. Whilst the individual organizations still exist as such, the umbrella organisation overlooking them has changed to Fire and Emergency New Zealand.

To the average person from one day to the next, that means little. One still obviously dials 111 for emergencies. The Police, Fire and St John still have their distinctive roles to play. What has changed is how events requiring an inter agency response are managed. Too late for the 11 houses that were destroyed in the fires last year, but hopefully not too late to prevent a repeat of such an event somewhere else in New Zealand.

When the fires started, the first on the scene were the Fire Service. But, although it was normally the first to respond to rural fires, the Fire Service jurisdiction lay within urban areas. In a rural fire event, the Fire Service would hand over to the Rural Fire Service when their personnel arrived. With 38 fire districts shared between the F.S. and the N.R.F.S., little wonder perhaps that confusion reigned. With these particular fires traversing the boundaries of Selwyn District, Christchurch City and Department of Conservation land, exactly who was in charge (or not in charge)of what, was a mystery.

People affected have complained of a lack of information being fed to them by Civil Defence or the Fire Service. A lack of intelligence meant when the forecast easterly change on Day 3 happened, the Selwyn District Civil Defence did not get it. Information about fire behaviour and progress all seemed to be missing. The Fire Service acknowledges this.

Whilst progress has been made addressing the command structure of the Fire Service, can the same be said for the replanting of the Port Hills areas burnt by the fire with less fire prone vegetation types. Carrying out this replanting using such vegetation types will help to reduce the risk to properties in the future.

It also raises questions about peoples preparedness for scrub fires that firefighters lose control of. Many people who were forced to move, were made to do so at short notice, meaning valuables, documents such as passports, driver licenses and so forth, ended up being left behind.

Finally one point of interest remains. If one looks at the Crimes Act provisions for arson, a person may be liable for up to 14 years imprisonment if they are found to have caused intentional damage by fire to property knowing a risk to life is likely to ensue; 7 years if found to have caused intentional damage by fire to property that they have no interest in. The Act says nothing about providing for someone found guilty of multiple instances in either case.

With warm weather forecast today, one hopes that fire wise it ends up being a damn sight less eventful than 13 February 2017 and the days following were.